Hurricane Isaac
The production shut in as of 11:30 AM today is
shown in the table below. The previous
blog on Isaac put Gulf production of oil
and gas in perspective. This report is a situation update with detailed
tables on refineries, oil and gas pipelines and natural gas plants.
Thursday's statistics represented the peak in shut-in production as
well as platform and rig evacuations. There is little to indicate much
damage to offshore facilities. However, the manning of platforms and
return of production is the slowest we have seen. Of the 1,310,801
barrels of oil production shut in only 2,439 b/d is back on line.
Only 188.38 MMCF/day of gas
production out of 3,264 has been restored.. As of the latest
report personnel have only returned to 2 drilling rigs and 10 of the
509
producing platforms that were evacuated. This slow response may be part
of the reason that crude oil prices are up over $2.00 as we
write. The other part is signals from Bernanke that QE3 may be in the
near future.
The
question we have is how soon will production recover? The newly minted
Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) now provides the
data. Before it replaced the MMS we had production shut-in data by for
each of the 5 offshore districts: New Orleans, Houma, Lafayette,
Lake Charles and Lake Jackson. Now we only get the entire Gulf. That
makes it more difficult to estimate the time it will take for
production to return to normal. In the graphs below data from Isaac
(green) shut-ins and evacuations is compared to hurricanes Ivan (gray)
and Katrina and Rita (red).
The
BSEE report on rigs contains the following statement. "After the
hurricane has passed, facilities will be inspected. Once all standard
checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will
be brought back on line immediately. Facilities sustaining damage may
take longer to bring back on line."
We
are concerned that these more stringent requirements from BSEE will
delay the recovery to pre-hurricane levels. The inspections will
be performed by company personnel. So if there is no damage the delays
could be minimal, but the evidence to date says otherwise. A look at
the
graphs below shows the slowest return to production of any major
hurricane,
The impact on natural gas was less because Gulf production has been
declining and before Isaac was less than half the level it was before
Katrina.
The
number of platforms evacuated will be a leading indicator of the
restoration of production.
All of the rigs drilling in the Gulf except two are still unmanned.
This will not
have any impact on markets as it does not involve current production.
The
Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended tanker unloading at
the terminal at 10:00 am EDT August 27. While the LOOP and onshore port
closures will disrupt imports the total will still be the same just
later this week or early next week. The EIA has a nice map
of Gulf of Mexico oil and gas assets with and overlay of the expected
path of Isaac.
We are not optimistic about the pace of at which Gulf production will
recover. It is speculation at this point but we suspect new regulations
from BSEE. If more data becomes available over the weekend we will
update. If the progress remains slow over the 3-day weekend we could
see upward pressure Tuesday on crude prices.
As of 10:30 am EDT, August 31, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP)
is working to resume operations at the marine terminal by tonight.
LOOP’s Clovelly storage facility remains without commercial power,
however, the company resumed deliveries from the facility yesterday
evening (August 30). As of 6:00 pm
|
|
NYMEX
Prices
for August 30, 2012
| NYMEX
Light Sweet Crude |
-0.87
|
$94.62
|
| ICE
Brent |
+0.11
|
$112.65
|
| RBOB Gasoline
NY Harbor |
-0.0177
|
$3.0826
|
| Heating
Oil NY Harbor |
+0.0088
|
$3.1245
|
| NYMEX
Natural Gas |
+0.053
|
$2.748
|
|
Hurricane Isaac Shut
In Production
|
|
Location
|
Amount
Shut In
|
Pre-Event
Production
|
Percent
Shut In
|
|
Crude Oil
(B/D)
|
1,308,362
|
1,380,000
|
94.8%
|
|
Natural
Gas
(MMCF/D)
|
3,075
|
4,500
|
68.3%
|
Platforms & Rigs
|
| Type |
Evacuated
|
Total |
Percent |
| Platforms |
499
|
596
|
83.7% |
Rigs
|
48 |
80
|
63.2% |
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
|
Refinery
|
Location
|
Capacity
(B/D)
|
|
|
Operating
Capacity
|
Shut
Down* |
Restarting |
Reduced Runs |
Normal |
|
Mississippi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chevron
|
Pascagoula
|
330,000
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
Alabama |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shell
|
Saraland
|
80,000
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
Louisiana
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alon
|
Krotz
Springs
|
80,000
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
Chalmette
Refining
|
Chalmette
|
192,500
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
ExxonMobil
|
Baton
Rouge
|
502,500
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
Marathon
|
Garyville
|
490,000
|
|
|
X |
|
|
Motiva
|
Convent
|
235,000
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Motiva
|
Norco
|
233,500
|
X |
|
|
|
|
Phillips
66
|
Belle
Chasse
|
247,000
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
Placid
Refining
|
Port
Allen
|
57,000
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Valero
|
Meraux
|
125,000
|
X**
|
|
|
|
|
Valero
|
Norco
|
205,000
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
Total
|
|
2,652,500
|
878,000**
|
292,000 |
1,482,500 |
0 |
*Shut down or shutting
down.
** Valero Meraux
Shutdown unrelated to storm not included in totals.
|
|
|
|
|
| Petroleum
Pipelines |
| Type |
Name |
Start |
Terminus |
Capacity
(barrels/day) |
Status |
| Crude |
Capline Pipeline |
LA |
IL |
1,200,000 |
Restarted |
| Crude |
Ho-Ho (Houma-to-Houston)
|
LA |
TX |
325,000 |
Houma to DOE Junction
section shut down |
| Crude |
LOOP LOCAP |
LA |
LA |
1,200,000 |
Deliveries out of LOCAP
St. James terminal and Clovelly Storage Facility have resumed. |
| Crude |
Shell Offshore Gulf
Pipeline Network |
GOM |
LA |
NA |
Shut Down |
| Crude |
Williams Mountaineer |
GOM |
LA |
NA |
Shut Down |
|
|
|
| Natural
Gas Pipelines |
|
Name
|
Time
Stamp
|
Notice
(Status)
|
|
ANR
Pipeline Company
|
8/28/2012
|
Scheduled
maintenance and TS Isaac related capacity curtailment between Eunice
and Patterson delivery points.
|
|
Columbia
Gulf Transmission Company
|
8/27/2012
|
Curtailment
at Venice, Acadia and Erath plant delivery points.
|
|
Dauphin
Island Gathering System
|
8/30/2012
|
Force
Majeure
|
|
Destin
Pipeline Company
|
8/25/2012
|
Assessment
and recovery operations have begun; Force Majeure on offshore receipt
points remains.
|
|
Discovery
Gas Transmission
|
8/27/2012
|
With
Discovery’s Larose Plant returning to service, DGT is accepting
nominations for delivery to the plant.
|
|
Florida
Gas Transmission Company
|
8/28/2012
|
Force
Majeure at Napoleonville Storage Rec.
|
|
Garden
Banks Gas Pipeline
|
8/29/2012
|
Force
Majeure
|
|
Manta
Ray Offshore Gathering Company
|
8/29/2012
|
Force
Majeure
|
|
Mississippi
Canyon Gas Pipeline
|
8/27/2012
|
Force
Majeure
|
|
Natural
Gas Pipeline
Company (Kinder Morgan NGPL)
|
8/30/2012
|
Force
Majeure on the Amarillo #3 Segment 11 in the Midcontinent zone (through
Compressor Station 105) has been lifted. The segment was shut-in on
8/27/2012.
|
|
Nautilus Pipeline
Company
|
8/30/2012
|
The
pipeline has begun accepting nominations for delivery to Acadian Gas
Pipeline, ANR, Cypress, Gulf South and Tenn 800 LEG. Force Majeure
remains at other portions.
|
|
Sabine
Pipe Line
|
8/28/2012
|
Sea
Robin/Henry Hub Interconnect shut-in.
|
|
Sea
Robin Pipeline Company
|
8/30/2012
|
Sea
Robin Pipeline
system shut-in. Will not be accepting nominations
until post-storm inspections of onshore and offshore facilities are
complete.
|
|
Southern Natural Gas
|
8/28/2012
|
Force
Majeure at numerous delivery points including Toca, Lake Washington,
Main Pass, West Delta, Venice-Mississippi Canyon, Sea Robin and many
others. The Sea Robin interconnect has been approved to flow.
|
|
Stingray
Pipeline Company
|
8/30/2012
|
Stingray’s
facilities at
West Cameron 509 platform have resumed operation. Other portions
continue to remain shut-in..
|
|
Tennessee
Gas Pipeline Company
|
8/30/2012
|
Force
Majeure at Station 249 has been lifted.
|
|
Transcontinental
Gas Pipe Line Company
|
8/30/2012
|
Southeast
Louisiana Lateral (SELA) shut-in at Station 62 (near Gibson, LA).
Delivery points upstream of Station 82 also shut-in.
|
|
Trunkline
Gas Company
|
8/30/2012
|
Offshore
system shut-in. Will not accept nominations on Terrobonne offshore
system until post-storm inspections of onshore and offshore facilities
are complete.
|
|
Venice Gathering System
|
8/27/2012
|
Force
Majeure
|
|
|
|
| Natural Gas
Processing Plants |
| Plant Name |
Location |
Capacity
(million cubic feet per day)2 |
|
|
Design System
Operation |
Shutdown |
Capable
to Restart |
Operating at
Reduced Levels |
Normal |
| Yscloskey Gas Plant |
St.Bernard, LA |
1,850 |
X |
|
|
|
|
North
Terrebonne Plant
|
Gibson,
LA
|
1,100
|
|
X |
|
|
|
Pascagoula
Gas Processing Plant
|
Jackson,
MS
|
1,100
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
Toca
Gas Plant
|
St.
Bernard, LA
|
1,100
|
|
X |
|
|
|
Venice
Gas Plant
|
Plaquemines,
LA
|
750
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
Sea
Robin Gas Plant
|
Vermillion,
LA
|
660
|
|
X |
|
|
|
Neptune
Plant
|
St.
Marys, LA
|
650
|
|
|
X |
|
|
Larose
Plant
|
Lafourche,
LA
|
600
|
|
|
X |
|
|
Pelican
Plant
|
St.
Marys, LA
|
600
|
|
X |
|
|
|
Williams
Mobile Bay
Processing Plant
|
Mobile
Bay, AL
|
600
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Blue
Water Gas Plant
|
Acadia
Parish, LA
|
350
|
X3
|
|
|
|
|
Mobile
Bay Processing
|
Mobile,
AL
|
300
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Sabine
Pass Plant
|
Cameron,
LA
|
300
|
|
X |
|
|
|
Stingray
Gas Plant
|
Cameron,
LA
|
300
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Cameron
Meadows Plant
|
Cameron,
LA
|
275
|
X4
|
|
|
|
|
Lowry
Gas Plant
|
Cameron,
LA
|
240
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
Baton
Rouge Gas Plant
|
West
Baton Rouge, LA
|
225
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Plaquemine
Plant
|
Iberville
Parish, LA
|
225
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
Yellowhammer
Gas Plant
|
Mobile,
AL
|
200
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Paterson
II Plant
|
St.
Marys, LA
|
180
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Burns
Point Plant
|
St.
Marys, LA
|
160
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
PSI
Kaplan Plant
|
Vermillion,
LA
|
125
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
Gibson
Plant
|
Terrebonne,
LA
|
110
|
|
|
X |
|
Note: 1 List only
includes plants with
processing capacity greater than or equal to 100 million cubic feet per
day.
2The
capacity represents the design capacity of the plants and does not
represent the actual gas flow through these plants.
3Blue
Water Gas Plant has been inactive for 2 months and its inactivity is
unrelated to Isaac.
4Cameron
Meadows Plant is undergoing maintenance that began a few days prior to
Isaac making landfall.
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Copyright
© 1996-2012 by
James L. Williams
|
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James L. Williams
WTRG Economics
P.O. Box 250
London, Arkansas 72847
Phone: (479) 293-4081
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To contact us or
if you have comments or suggestions,
email
WTRG at wtrg@wtrg.com
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