Crude oil prices
Falling at a pace reminisent of 2008 when the price fell from $145 to
the low $30s.
Libya and at
least two other OPEC have the potential for a supply interuption but
oil production remains higer than consumption. Unlike 2008 the current
price drop is from rising production rather than falling consumption.
What is the impact
of a weakened European
economy? How much to the increased value of the dollar? How much can be
attributed to China and the
rest of Asia? Why is demand growth slowing in China, India and most of
Asia? Is it all just due to slower economic growth?
How much of the
price drop can be
attributed to speculators? How much is due to the index fund
speculation by institutional investors? Will the futures contango
Have we hit peak
oil, peak investment or peak consumption? How much spare oil production
capacity exists and how does it relate to price? Most spikes in oil
prices are associated with war or civil unrest in exporting countries
on the upside and recession on the downside.
Which producers are at greatest risk for war or revolution?
Geopolitical risk of a supply interruption has seldom been higher and
low prices increase that risk.
How low can shale
drilling activity fall? Will eliminate U.S. dependence on oil imports
start increasing again?
We also look at
the broader picture examining hydrocarbon's place in the world's energy
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